Cuba: Change is Coming

Written by Gabriel Marcella

“Liberty is the right of every man to be honest, to think and to speak without hypocrisy.”
José Martí, Cuban patriot

The Cuban people are about to awaken from the long nightmare of communist rule. Three generations have lived the darkness. The initiative by the Obama administration, Pope Francis, and the Cuban leadership has begun the process of changing the country from a dysfunctional and corrupt system where personal liberty is subordinated to the needs of an octogenarian leadership. It is a system in which the hypocrisy of the state knows no limits. It survives by repression and handouts in the form of oil from another dysfunctional and corrupt government—Venezuela. The handouts are no longer sustainable given the steep fall of oil prices.

What is likely to happen in the short to medium term? Dictator Raúl Castro, pushing 84, states that Cuba won’t abandon communism, a remarkable stance given its utter failure and bleak future. The comment is likely designed to reassure loyalists that they are safe. But with the normalization of relations and the flow of people, ideas, and the promise of a better life the political opening will inevitably lead to democracy.

How will this happen? The responsibility lies with the people of Cuba. The Castro system has attempted to control the emergence of independent thinking and political organization outside of the communist party. Many heroic Cubans have resisted, finding themselves harassed or jailed; many have left, and many have died trying. But that’s history. Pressures for democratic change will emerge from civil society—to release political prisoners, allow free flow of information, private property, a political opposition, free labor unions, unimpeded travel, and for institutions like the Catholic Church to be more assertive in speaking for change. An estimated nascent 365 civil society organizations operate to help educate the Cuban people about their political rights. They and many more should have greater political space and challenge the monopoly on politics now held by the communist state.

If past is prologue, Cuban authorities will resist because they know that popular pressure brought down communist governments in Eastern Europe in 1989. And there is always the problem of what to with ousted and disgraced dictators: the firing squad, a rest home in the countryside, or comfortable exile in Spain. It’s entirely possible that they want to leave a better legacy than outright failure. But Cuba is not Eastern Europe, occupied by the Soviet army. It is an island with a home-made revolution that was not imposed by a hated foreign power. Moreover, the Castro brothers are survivors, having been around since 1959.

Yet their bucket list is now smaller than ever. Resorting to force to suppress the newly empowered civil society will have serious costs, such as the benefits of full trade with the United States, disapproval by the international community, and the potential fracturing of the political cohesion of the dictatorship. Finally, there is the question of what the Cuban police and military would do in the face of orders to use force to put down democratic demands in the streets. Would they shoot their own people if ordered? None of these scenarios is pleasant to the aged leaders. They will have a difficult challenge accommodating change while trying to stem the tide of democratic demands. We should not wish them well.

There are some 1.9 million Cuban Americans, many in the third generation since their parents left the island. There are, to be sure, divisions between generations on how to deal with the prospect of normalization. Some of the older folks are opposed and many suffered great losses, but all want a better Cuba. They are likely to surge onto the island, bring cash, goods, ideas, skills, and political encouragement. Many will become politically active and tutor democracy. They will be essential players in the new politics. Normalization removes many obstacles for the full play of American influence. Resumed trade and open contact with the Cuban people will empower them to be confident and effective in claiming their right to participate in a Cuba where liberty and honesty can exist, freed from the repressive power of the state.

*Gabriel Marcella teaches Latin American affairs at the Army War College.